The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 12/07/15 to 12/11/15

The Windermere Economist

What I Saw Last Week

The NAR Pending Home Sales Index edged up slightly in October, but was still an improvement over the two previous monthly declines. The index inched up by 0.2% to 107.7 from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September. I had forecast a more robust increase of 0.7%.

Pending SalesWhile October’s number came in below my expectations, pending home sales are still up a solid 3.9 percent year over year and remain consistent with recent trends in existing home sales. Additionally, I would note that the index has seen year-over-year increases for 14 consecutive months.

Although I anticipate further expansion in existing sales in 2016 ongoing inventory constraints and affordability pressures from rising prices and interest rates is likely to temper sales growth to around 3 percent (5.55M units).

U.S. Construction Spending  rose 1.0% in October – above my forecast for an increase of 0.7%.

Construction SpendingThe strength in…

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